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We conduct an empirical evaluation of the impact of New York's bail reform oncrime. New York State's Bail Elimination Act went into effect on January 1,2020, eliminating money bail and pretrial detention for nearly all misdemeanorand nonviolent felony defendants. Our analysis of effects on aggregate crimerates after the reform informs the understanding of bail reform and generaldeterrence. We conduct a synthetic control analysis for a comparative casestudy of impact of bail reform. We focus on synthetic control analysis ofpost-intervention changes in crime for assault, theft, burglary, robbery, anddrug crimes, constructing a dataset from publicly reported crime data of 27large municipalities. Our findings, including placebo checks and otherrobustness checks, show that for assault, theft, and drug crimes, there is nosignificant impact of bail reform on crime; for burglary and robbery, wesimilarly have null findings but the synthetic control is also more variable sothese are deemed less conclusive.

An Empirical Evaluation of the Impact of New York's Bail Reform on Crime Using Synthetic Controls