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In this study, we propose a clustering-based approach on time-series data tocapture COVID-19 spread patterns in the early period of the pandemic. Weanalyze the spread dynamics based on the early and post stages of COVID-19 fordifferent countries based on different geographical locations. Furthermore, weinvestigate the confinement policies and the effect they made on the spread. Wefound that implementations of the same confinement policies exhibit differentresults in different countries. Specifically, lockdowns become less effectivein densely populated regions, because of the reluctance to comply with socialdistancing measures. Lack of testing, contact tracing, and social awareness insome countries forestall people from self-isolation and maintaining socialdistance. Large labor camps with unhealthy living conditions also aid in highcommunity transmissions in countries depending on foreign labor. Distrust ingovernment policies and fake news instigate the spread in both developed andunder-developed countries. Large social gatherings play a vital role in causingrapid outbreaks almost everywhere. While some countries were able to containthe spread by implementing strict and widely adopted confinement policies, someothers contained the spread with the help of social distancing measures andrigorous testing capacity. An early and rapid response at the beginning of thepandemic is necessary to contain the spread, yet it is not always sufficient.

Efficacy the of Confinement Policies on the COVID-19 Spread Dynamics in the Early Period of the Pandemic