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The South China Sea (SCS) is one of the most economically valuable resourceson the planet, and as such has become a source of territorial disputes betweenits bordering nations. Among other things, states compete to harvest themultitude of fish species in the SCS. In an effort to gain a competitiveadvantage states have turned to increased maritime patrols, as well as the useof "maritime militias," which are fishermen armed with martial assets to resistthe influence of patrols. This conflict suggests a game of strategic resourceallocation where states allocate patrols intelligently to earn the greatestpossible utility. The game, however, is quite computationally challenging whenconsidering its size (there are several distinct fisheries in the SCS), thenonlinear nature of biomass growth, and the influence of patrol allocations oncosts imposed on fishermen. Further, uncertainty in player behavior attributedto modeling error requires a robust analysis to fully capture the dispute'sdynamics. To model such a complex scenario, this paper employs a responsesurface methodology to assess optimal patrolling strategies and their impact onrealized utilities. The methodology developed successfully finds strategieswhich are more robust to behavioral uncertainty than a more straight-forwardmethod.

Analyzing a Complex Game for the South China Sea Fishing Dispute using Response Surface Methodologies