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Ensuring widespread public exposure to best-science guidance is crucial in acrisis, e.g. Covid-19, climate change. Mapping the emitter-receiver dynamics ofCovid-19 guidance among 87 million Facebook users, we uncover a multi-sidedbattle over exposure that gets lost well before the pandemic's officialannouncement. By the time Covid-19 vaccines emerge, the mainstream majority --including many parenting communities -- have moved even closer to more extremecommunities. The hidden heterogeneity explains why Facebook's own promotion ofbest-science guidance also missed key audience segments. A simple mathematicalmodel reproduces these exposure dynamics at the system level. Our findings canbe used to tailor guidance at scale while accounting for individual diversity,and to predict tipping point behavior and system-level responses tointerventions.

Losing the battle over best-science guidance early in a crisis: Covid-19 and beyond