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National economies rest on networks of millions of customer-supplierrelations. Some companies -- in the case of their default -- can triggersignificant cascades of shock in the supply-chain network and are thussystemically risky. Up to now, systemic risk of individual companies waspractically not quantifiable, due to the unavailability of firm-leveltransaction data. So far, economic shocks are typically studied in theframework of input-output analysis on the industry-level that can't relate riskto individual firms. Exact firm-level supply networks based on tax or paymentdata exist only for very few countries. Here we explore to what extenttelecommunication data can be used as an inexpensive, easily available, andreal-time alternative to reconstruct national supply networks on thefirm-level. We find that the conditional probability of correctly identifying atrue customer-supplier link -- given a communication link exists -- is about90%. This quality level allows us to reliably estimate a systemic risk profileof an entire country that serves as a proxy for the resilience of its economy.In particular, we are able to identify the high systemic risk companies. Wefind that 65 firms have the potential to trigger large cascades of disruptionin production chains that could cause severe damages in the economy. We verifythat the topological features of the inter-firm communication network arehighly similar to national production networks with exact firm-levelinteractions.

Inferring supply networks from mobile phone data to estimate the resilience of a national economy