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Access to sustained clean cooking in India is essential to addressing thehealth burden of indoor air pollution from biomass fuels, but spatialinequality in cities can adversely affect uptake and effectiveness of policiesamongst low-income households. Limited data exists on the spatial distributionof energy use in Indian cities, particularly amongst low-income households, andmost quantitative studies focus primarily on the effect of economicdeterminants. A microsimulation approach is proposed, using publicly availabledata and a Bayesian multi-level model to account for effects of current cookingpractices, local socio-cultural context, and spatial effects. This approachoffers previously unavailable insight into the spatial distribution of fuel useand residential energy transition within Indian cities. Uncertainty in themodelled effects is propagated through to fuel use estimates. The model isapplied to four cities in the south Indian states of Kerala and Tamil Nadu, andcomparison against ward-level survey data shows consistency with the modelestimates. Ward-level effects exemplify how wards compare to the city averageand to other urban area in the state, which can help stakeholders design andimplement clean cooking interventions tailored to the needs of households.

A microsimulation of spatial inequality in energy access: A Bayesian multi-level modelling approach for urban India