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Computing such correlation coefficient would be straightforward had we hadavailable the rankings given by the prize committee to all scientists in thepool. In reality we only have citation rankings for all scientists. This means,however, that we have the ordinal rankings of the prize winners with regard tocitation metrics. I use maximum likelihood method to infer the most probablecorrelation coefficient to produce the observed pattern of ordinal ranks of theprize winners. I get the correlation coefficients of 0.47 and 0.59 between thecomposite citation indicator and getting Abel Prize and Fields Medal,respectively. The correlation coefficient between getting a Nobel Prize and theQ-factor is 0.65. These coefficients are of the same magnitude as thecorrelation coefficient between Elo ratings of the chess players and theirpopularity measured as numbers of webpages mentioning the players.

The correlation coefficient between citation metrics and winning a Nobel or Abel Prize