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In order to investigate the scope of uncertainty in projections of GCMs forTehran province, a multi-model projection composed of 15 models is employed.The projected changes in minimum temperature, maximum temperature,precipitation, and solar radiation under the A1B scenario for Tehran provinceare investigated for 2011-2030, 2046-2065, and 2080-2099. GCM projections forthe study region are downscaled by the LARS-WG5 model. Uncertainty among theprojections is evaluated from three perspectives: large-scale climate scenariosdownscaled values, and mean decadal changes. 15 GCMs unanimously project anincreasing trend in the temperature for the study region. Also, uncertainty inthe projections for the summer months is greater than projection uncertaintyfor other months. The mean absolute surface temperature increase for the threeperiods is projected to be about 0.8{\deg}C, 2.4{\deg}C, and 3.8{\deg}C in thesummers, respectively. The uncertainty of the multi-model projections forprecipitation in summer seasons, and the radiation in the springs and falls ishigher than other seasons for the study region. Model projections indicate thatfor the three future periods and relative to their baseline period, springtimeprecipitation will decrease about 5\%, 10\%, and 20\%, and springtime radiationwill increase about 0.5\%, 1.5\%, and 3\%, respectively. The projected meandecadal changes indicate an increase in temperature and radiation and adecrease in precipitation. Furthermore, the performance of the GCMs insimulating the baseline climate by the MOTP method does not indicate anydistinct pattern among the GCMs for the study region.

Uncertainty Analysis Of Future Projections Of Temperature, Precipitation, And Solar Radiation Under Global Warming Effect In Tehran, Iran