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The Covid-19 pandemic has taken millions of lives, demonstrating the tragedyand disruption of respiratory diseases, and how difficult they can be tomanage. However, there is still significant debate in the scientific communityas to which transmission pathways are most significant and how settings andbehaviour affect risk of infection, which all have implications for whichmitigation strategies are most effective. This study presents a general modelto estimate the rate of viral transfer between individuals, objects, and theair. The risk of infection to individuals in a setting is then computedconsidering the behaviour and interactions of individuals between themselvesand the environment in the setting, survival times of the virus on differentsurface types and in the air, and mitigating interventions (ventilation, handdisinfection, surface cleaning, etc.). The model includes discrete events suchas touch events, individuals entering/leaving the setting, and cleaning events.  We demonstrate the model capabilities on three case studies to quantify andunderstand the relative risk associated with the different transmissionpathways and the effectiveness of mitigation strategies in different settings.The results show the importance of considering all transmission pathways andtheir interactions, with each scenario displaying different dominant pathwaysdepending on the setting and behaviours of individuals therein. The flexiblemodel, which is freely available, can be used to quickly simulate the spread ofany respiratory virus via the modelled transmission pathways and the efficacyof potential mitigation strategies in any enclosed setting by making reasonableassumptions regarding the behaviour of its occupants. It is hoped that themodel can be used to inform sensible decision-making regarding viral infectionmitigations that are targeted to specific settings and pathogens.

A semi-continuous model for transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and other  respiratory viruses in enclosed spaces via multiple pathways to assess risk  of infection and mitigation strategies