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Researchers at the Ames Laboratory-USDOE and the Federal Bureau ofInvestigation (FBI) conducted a study to assess the performance of forensicexaminers in firearm investigations. The study involved three different typesof firearms and 173 volunteers who compared both bullets and cartridge cases.The total number of comparisons reported is 20,130, allocated to assessaccuracy (8,640), repeatability (5,700), and reproducibility (5,790) of theevaluations made by participating examiners. The overall false positive errorrate was estimated as 0.656% and 0.933% for bullets and cartridge cases,respectively, while the rate of false negatives was estimated as 2.87% and1.87% for bullets and cartridge cases, respectively. Because chi-square testsof independence strongly suggest that error probabilities are not the same foreach examiner, these are maximum likelihood estimates based on thebeta-binomial probability model and do not depend on an assumption of equalexaminer-specific error rates. Corresponding 95% confidence intervals are(0.305%,1.42%) and (0.548%,1.57%) for false positives for bullets and cartridgecases, respectively, and (1.89%,4.26%) and (1.16%,2.99%) for false negativesfor bullets and cartridge cases, respectively. These results are based on datarepresenting all controlled conditions considered, including different firearmmanufacturers, sequence of manufacture, and firing separation between unknownand known comparison specimens. The results are consistent with those of priorstudies, despite its more robust design and challenging specimens.

Accuracy, Repeatability, and Reproducibility of Firearm Comparisons Part 1: Accuracy