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One of the most widely known and important applications of probability andstatistics is scientific polling to forecast election results. In 1936, Galluppredicted correctly the victory of Roosevelt over Landon in the US presidentialelection, using scientific sampling of a few thousand persons, whereas theLiterary Digest failed using 2.4 million answers to 10 million mailedquestionnaires to automobile and telephone owners. Since then, polls have grownto be a multibillion flourishing and very influential and important industry,spreading around the world. Polls have mostly been accurate in the USpresidential elections, with a few exceptions. Their two most notable failureswere their wrong predictions of the US 1948 and 2016 presidential elections.Most polls failed too in the 2016 UK Referendum, in the 2014 and 2019 India LokSabha elections, and in the US 2020 presidential election, even though in thelatter three they did predict the winner. We discuss these polls in the presentpaper. The failure in 1948 was due to non-random sampling. In 2016 and 2020 itwas mainly due to the problem of non-response and possible biases of thepollsters. In 2014 and 2019 it was due to non-response and political biases ofthe polling agencies and news outlets that produced the polls.

Why Do Polls Fail? The Case of Four US Presidential Elections, Brexit, and Two India General Elections