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Student's grade retention is a key issue faced by many education systems,especially those in developing countries. In this paper, we seek to gauge therelevance of students' personality traits in predicting grade retention inBrazil. For that, we used data collected in 2012 and 2017, in the city ofSertaozinho, countryside of the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. The surveys takenin Sertaozinho included several socioeconomic questions, standardized tests,and a personality test. Moreover, students were in grades 4, 5, and 6 in 2012.Our approach was based on training machine learning models on the surveys' datato predict grade retention between 2012 and 2017 using information from 2012 orbefore, and then using some strategies to quantify personality traits'predictive power. We concluded that, besides proving to be fairly better than arandom classifier when isolated, personality traits contribute to predictioneven when using socioeconomic variables and standardized tests results.

Effects of personality traits in predicting grade retention of Brazilian students