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Discovering and quantifying the drivers of language change is a majorchallenge. Hypotheses about causal factors proliferate, but are difficult torigorously test. Here we ask a simple question: can 20th Century changes inEnglish English be explained as a consequence of spatial diffusion, or haveother processes created bias in favour of certain linguistic forms? Using twoof the most comprehensive spatial datasets available, which measure the stateof English at the beginning and end of the 20th century, we calibrate a simplespatial model so that, initialised with the early state, it evolves into thelater. Our calibrations reveal that while some changes can be explained bydiffusion alone, others are clearly the result of substantial asymmetriesbetween variants. We discuss the origins of these asymmetries and, as aby-product, we generate a full spatio-temporal prediction for the spatialevolution of English features over the 20th Century, and a prediction of thefuture.

Inferring the drivers of language change using spatial models