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This paper investigates the initial boundary value problem for anon-stationary one-dimensional heat equation that simulates the temperaturedistribution in freshwater ice near the Earth's poles. The mathematical modelhas been constructed taking into account solid-liquid phase transitions. Datafrom meteorological stations were used to determine the model parameters, withthe help of which the necessary physical and thermophysical characteristics ofthe computational domain were obtained. For the numerical solution of theproblem, the finite volume method (FVM) was used. For the obtained periodicregime, the temperature versus depth dependences for each month were plotted,and the depth of the active layer, as well as the depth of zero annualamplitudes were found for each meteorological station. A forecast of the icetemperature regime for 2100 was modeled for three Representative ConcentrationPathway (RCP) scenarios of global warming: moderate RCP2.6, corresponding tothe current emissions of RCP7 and adopted at the Paris Agreement in 2015RCP1.9. By analyzing the impact of an additional 0,5 degrees Celsius of warmingon other areas, a reduction in the full range of risks to humanity and theplanet as a whole becomes evident with the proper efforts of the globalcommunity. Thus, the conducted modeling has confirmed the need to reduce therate of global warming.

Analysis and prediction of changes in the temperature of the pure freshwater ice column in the Antarctic and the Arctic