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The estimate of the cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 of 76% in Manaus byOctober 2020 by Buss et al. relies on the assumption of anexponentially-declining probability of sero-reversion over time. We present analternative, empirically-supported approach that is based on the observeddynamics of antibody titers in sero-positive cases. Through this approach werevise the cumulative incidence estimate to 66% (63.3% - 68.5%) by October2020. This estimate has implications for the proximity to herd immunity andfuture estimates of fitness advantages of virus variants, such as the P.1variant of concern. This methodology is also relevant for any other sero-surveyanalysis that has to adjust for sero-reversion.

Comment on Buss et al., Science 2021: An alternative,  empirically-supported adjustment for sero-reversion yields a 10 percentage  point lower estimate of the cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 in Manaus by  October 2020