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Macroscopic, phenomenological models have proven useful as concise framingsof our understandings in fields from statistical physics to economics tobiology. Constructing a phenomenological model for development would provide aframework for understanding the complicated, regulatory nature of oogenesis andembryogenesis. Here, we use a data-driven approach to infer quantitative,precise models of human oocyte maturation and pre-implantation embryodevelopment, by analyzing existing clinical In-Vitro Fertilization (IVF) dataon 7,399 IVF cycles resulting in 57,827 embryos. Surprisingly, we find thatboth oocyte maturation and early embryo development are quantitativelydescribed by simple models with minimal interactions. This simplicity suggeststhat oogenesis and embryogenesis are composed of modular processes that arerelatively siloed from one another. In particular, our analysis provides strongevidence that (i) pre-antral follicles produce anti-M{\"u}llerian hormoneindependently of effects from other follicles, (ii) oocytes mature tometaphase-II independently of the woman's age, her BMI, and other factors,(iii) early embryo development is memoryless for the variables assessed here,in that the probability of an embryo transitioning from its currentdevelopmental stage to the next is independent of its previous stage. Ourresults both provide insight into the fundamentals of oogenesis andembryogenesis and have implications for the clinical practice of IVF.

Inferring simple but precise quantitative models of human oocyte and early embryo development