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This paper relies on a microsimulation framework to undertake an analysis ofthe distributional implications of the COVID-19 crisis over three waves. Giventhe lack of real-time survey data during the fast moving crisis, it applies anowcasting methodology and real-time aggregate administrative data to calibratean income survey and to simulate changes in the tax benefit system thatattempted to mitigate the impacts of the crisis. Our analysis shows howcrisis-induced income-support policy innovations combined with existingprogressive elements of the tax-benefit system were effective in avoiding anincrease in income inequality at all stages of waves 1-3 of the COVID-19emergency in Ireland. There was, however, a decline in generosity over time asbenefits became more targeted. On a methodological level, our paper makes aspecific contribution in relation to the choice of welfare measure in assessingthe impact of the COVID-19 crisis on inequality.

A Microsimulation Analysis of the Distributional Impact over the Three Waves of the COVID-19 Crisis in Ireland