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Non-generating resources such as thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs) canarbitrage energy prices and provide balancing reserves when aggregated due totheir thermal energy storage capacity. Based on a performed survey of Swedishsingle- and two-family dwellings with electric heating, this paper quantifiesthe potential of TCLs to provide reserves to the power system in Sweden. Tothis end, dwellings with heat pumps and direct electric heaters are modeled asthermal energy storage equivalents that can be included in a linear two-stageproblem formulation. We approach the operational flexibility of the TCLs bymodeling a risk-averse aggregator that controls decentralized TCLs and aims tomaximize its own profit. The results show a potential of 2 GW/0.1Hz averagedover a year, and up to 6.4 GW/0.1Hz peak capacity. Based on a sensitivityanalysis we derive policy implications regarding market timing and activationsignal.

A bottom-up quantification of flexibility potential from the thermal energy storage in electric space heating