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Surprisal theory has provided a unifying framework for understanding manyphenomena in sentence processing (Hale, 2001; Levy, 2008a), positing that aword's conditional probability given all prior context fully determinesprocessing difficulty. Problematically for this claim, one local statistic,word frequency, has also been shown to affect processing, even when conditionalprobability given context is held constant. Here, we ask whether other localstatistics have a role in processing, or whether word frequency is a specialcase. We present the first clear evidence that more complex local statistics,word bigram and trigram probability, also affect processing independently ofsurprisal. These findings suggest a significant and independent role of localstatistics in processing. Further, it motivates research into newgeneralizations of surprisal that can also explain why local statisticalinformation should have an outsized effect.

Local word statistics affect reading times independently of surprisal