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Non-pharmaceutical interventions have been critical in the fight against theCOVID-19 pandemic. However, these sanitary measures have been partially lifteddue to socioeconomic factors causing a worrisome rebound of the epidemic inseveral countries. In this work, we assess the effectiveness of the mitigationimplemented to constrain the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the Mexican territoryduring 2020. We also investigate to what extent the initial deployment of thevaccine will help to mitigate the pandemic and reduce the need for socialdistancing and other mobility restrictions. Our modeling approach is based on asimple mechanistic Kermack-McKendrick-type model. To quantify the effect ofNPIs, we perform a monthly Bayesian inference using officially published data.The results suggest that in the absence of the sanitary measures, thecumulative number of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths would have beenat least twice the official number. Moreover, for low vaccine coverage levels,relaxing NPIs may dramatically increase the disease burden; therefore, safetymeasures are of critical importance at the early stages of vaccination. Thesimulations also suggest that it may be more desirable to employ a vaccine withlow efficacy but reach a high coverage than a vaccine with high effectivenessbut low coverage levels. This supports the hypothesis that single doses to moreindividuals will be more effective than two doses for every person.

Estimating the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and  vaccination on the progress of the COVID-19 epidemic in Mexico: a  mathematical approach