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Scepticism towards childhood vaccines and genetically modified food has growndespite scientific evidence of their safety. Beliefs about scientific issuesare difficult to change because they are entrenched within many related moralconcerns and beliefs about what others think. We propose a cognitive networkmodel which estimates the relationships, dissonance, and randomness between allrelated beliefs to derive predictions of the circumstances under which beliefschange. Using a probabilistic nationally representative longitudinal study, wefound support for our model's predictions: Randomness of the belief networksdecreased over time, for many participants their estimated dissonance relatedpositively to their self-reported dissonance, and individuals who had highestimated dissonance of their belief network were more likely to change theirbeliefs to reduce this dissonance. This study is the first to combine aunifying predictive model with an experimental intervention and sheds light ondynamics of dissonance reduction leading to belief change.

Using a Cognitive Network Model of Moral and Social Beliefs to Explain Belief Change