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Road vehicles play an important role in the UK's energy systems and are acritical component in reducing the reliance on fossil fuels and mitigatingemissions. A dynamic model of vehicle fleet, based on predator-prey concepts,is presented. It allows to predict the evolution of the hydrogen basedvehicle's role in the UK's vehicle fleet and the sensitivity of this growth tothe supply chain. In addition to this, this model is used to predict the demandof hydrogen for the passenger vehicle fleet for various scenarios. A key resultis that the amount of hydrogen required to support a huge network of hydrogenbased vehicles is currently not practical, regarding the infrastructurerequired and the cost to build such an infrastructure. In order to mitigatethat, the policy focus should move primarily from hydrogen based vehicles tofirst encompass range extenders in the transport energy system.

Forecasting the Evolution of Hydrogen Vehicle Fleet in the UK usingGrowth and Lotka-Volterra Models