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This study uses the unprecedented changes in the sex ratio due to the lossesof men during World War II to identify the impacts of the gender imbalance onmarriage market and birth outcomes in Japan. Using newly digitized census-basedhistorical statistics, we find evidence that men had a stronger bargainingposition in the marriage market and intra-household fertility decisions thanwomen. Under relative male scarcity, while people, especially younger people,were more likely to marry and divorce, widowed women were less likely toremarry than widowed men. We also find that women's bargaining position in themarriage market might not have improved throughout the 1950s. Given theinstitutional changes in the abortion law after the war, marital fertility andstillbirth rates increased in the areas that suffered relative male scarcity.Our result on out-of-wedlock births indicates that the theoretical predictionof intra-household bargaining is considered to be robust in an economy in whichmarital fertility is dominant.

The Impacts of the Gender Imbalance on Marriage and Birth: Evidence from World War II in Japan