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This paper estimates the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions -mainly, the lockdown - on the COVID-19 mortality rate for the case of Italy,the first Western country to impose a national shelter-in-place order. We use anew estimator, the Augmented Synthetic Control Method (ASCM), that overcomessome limits of the standard Synthetic Control Method (SCM). The results aretwofold. From a methodological point of view, the ASCM outperforms the SCM inthat the latter cannot select a valid donor set, assigning all the weights toonly one country (Spain) while placing zero weights to all the remaining. Froman empirical point of view, we find strong evidence of the effectiveness ofnon-pharmaceutical interventions in avoiding losses of human lives in Italy:conservative estimates indicate that for each human life actually lost, in theabsence of lockdown there would have been on average other 1.15, the policysaved in total 20,400 human lives.

The sooner the better: lives saved by the lockdown during the COVID-19 outbreak. The case of Italy