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The COVID-19 pandemic has left its marks in the sports world, forcing thefull-stop of all sports-related activities in the first half of 2020. Footballleagues were suddenly stopped and each country was hesitating between arelaunch of the competition and a premature ending. Some opted for the latteroption, and took as the final standing of the season the ranking from themoment the competition got interrupted. This decision has been perceived asunfair, especially by those teams who had remaining matches against easieropponents. In this paper, we introduce a tool to calculate in a fairer way thefinal standings of domestic leagues that have to stop prematurely: ourProbabilistic Final Standing Calculator (PFSC). It is based on a stochasticmodel taking into account the results of the matches played and simulating theremaining matches, yielding the probabilities for the various possible finalrankings. We have compared our PFSC with state-of-the-art prediction models,using previous seasons which we pretend to stop at different points in time. Weillustrate our PFSC by showing how a probabilistic ranking of the French Ligue1 in the stopped 2019-2020 season could have led to alternative, potentiallyfairer, decisions on the final standing.

The Probabilistic Final Standing Calculator: a fair stochastic tool to handle abruptly stopped football seasons