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Seasonal influenza presents an ongoing challenge to public health. The rapidevolution of the flu virus necessitates annual vaccination campaigns, but thedecision to get vaccinated or not in a given year is largely voluntary, atleast in the United States, and many people decide against it. In earlyattempts to model these yearly flu vaccine decisions, it was often assumed thatindividuals behave rationally, and do so with perfect information --assumptions that allowed the techniques of classical economics and game theoryto be applied. However, the usual assumptions are contradicted by the emergingempirical evidence about human decision-making behavior in this context. Wedevelop a simple model of coupled disease spread and vaccination dynamics thatinstead incorporates experimental observations from social psychology to modelannual vaccine decision-making more realistically. We investigatepopulation-level effects of these new decision-making assumptions, with thegoal of understanding whether the population can self-organize into a state ofherd immunity, and if so, under what conditions. Our model agrees withestablished results while also revealing more subtle population-level behavior,including biennial oscillations about the herd immunity threshold.

Modeling the interplay between seasonal flu outcomes and individual vaccination decisions