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Natural and anthropogenic disasters frequently affect both the supply anddemand side of an economy. A striking recent example is the Covid-19 pandemicwhich has created severe disruptions to economic output in most countries.These direct shocks to supply and demand will propagate downstream and upstreamthrough production networks. Given the exogenous shocks, we derive a lowerbound on total shock propagation. We find that even in this best case scenarionetwork effects substantially amplify the initial shocks. To obtain morerealistic model predictions, we study the propagation of shocks bottom-up byimposing different rationing rules on industries if they are not able tosatisfy incoming demand. Our results show that economic impacts depend stronglyon the emergence of input bottlenecks, making the rationing assumption a keyvariable in predicting adverse economic impacts. We further establish that themagnitude of initial shocks and network density heavily influence modelpredictions.

Simultaneous supply and demand constraints in input-output networks: The case of Covid-19 in Germany, Italy, and Spain