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We study the impact of fiscal revenue shocks on local fiscal policy. We focuson the very volatile revenues from the immovable property gains tax in thecanton of Zurich, Switzerland, and analyze fiscal behavior following large andrare positive and negative revenue shocks. We apply causal machine learningstrategies and implement the post-double-selection LASSO estimator to identifythe causal effect of revenue shocks on public finances. We show that localpolicymakers overall predominantly smooth fiscal shocks. However, we also findsome patterns consistent with fiscal conservatism, where positive shocks aresmoothed, while negative ones are mitigated by spending cuts.

The fiscal response to revenue shocks