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Sales of new petrol and diesel passenger vehicles may not be permitted in theUnited Kingdom (UK) post-2030. Should this happen, it is likely that vehiclespresently powered by hydrocarbons will be progressively replaced by BatteryElectric Vehicles (BEVs). This paper describes the use of mathematicalmodelling, drawing on real time records of the UK electricity grid, toinvestigate the likely performance of the grid when supplying power to a fleetof up to 35 million BEVs. The model highlights the importance of understandinghow the grid will cope when powering a BEV fleet under conditions similar tothose experienced during an extended wind lull during the 3rd week of January2017. Allowing a two-way flow of electricity between the BEVs and the grid,known as the vehicle-to-grid (V2G) configuration, turns out to be of keyimportance in minimising the need for additional gas turbine generation orenergy storage during wind lulls. This study has shown that with the use ofV2G, it should be possible to provide power to about 15 million BEVs with thegas turbine capacity currently available. Without V2G, it is likely that thecurrent capacity of the gas turbines and associated gas infrastructure might beoverwhelmed by even a relatively small BEV fleet. Since it is anticipated that80% of BEV owners will be able to park the vehicles at their residences,widespread V2G will enable both the powering of residences when supply from thegrid is constrained and the charging of BEVs when supply is in excess. Themodel shows that this configuration will maintain a constant load on the gridand avoid the use of either expensive alternative storage or hydrogen obtainedby reforming methane. There should be no insuperable problem in providing powerto the 20% of BEV owners who do not have parking at their residences; theirpower could come directly from the grid.

Predicting the Performance of a Future United Kingdom Grid and Wind Fleet When Providing Power to a Fleet of Battery Electric Vehicles