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What causes house prices to rise and fall? Economists identify householdaccess to credit as a crucial factor. "Loan-to-Value" and "Debt-to-GDP" ratiosare the standard measures for credit access. However, these measures fail toexplain the depth of the Dutch housing bust after the 2009 Financial Crisis.This work is the first to model household lending capacity based on theformulas that Dutch banks use in the mortgage application process. We comparethe ability of regression models to forecast housing prices when differentmeasures of credit access are utilised. We show that our measure of householdlending capacity is a forward-looking, highly predictive variable thatoutperforms `Loan-to-Value' and debt ratios in forecasting the Dutch crisis.Sharp declines in lending capacity foreshadow the market deceleration.

Credit Crunch: The Role of Household Lending Capacity in the Dutch Housing Boom and Bust 1995-2018