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Growth of science is a prevalent issue in science of science studies. Inrecent years, two new bibliographic databases have been introduced which can beused to study growth processes in science from centuries back: Dimensions fromDigital Science and Microsoft Academic. In this study, we used publication datafrom these new databases and added publication data from two establisheddatabases (Web of Science from Clarivate Analytics and Scopus from Elsevier) toinvestigate scientific growth processes from the beginning of the modernscience system until today. We estimated regression models that includedsimultaneously the publication counts from the four databases. The results ofthe unrestricted growth of science calculations show that the overall growthrate amounts to 4.10% with a doubling time of 17.3 years. As the comparison ofvarious segmented regression models in the current study revealed, the modelwith five segments fits the publication data best. We demonstrated that thesesegments with different growth rates can be interpreted very well, since theyare related to either phases of economic (e.g., industrialization) and / orpolitical developments (e.g., Second World War). In this study, we additionallyanalyzed scientific growth in two broad fields (Physical and Technical Sciencesas well as Life Sciences) and the relationship of scientific and economicgrowth in UK. The comparison between the two fields revealed only slightdifferences. The comparison of the British economic and scientific growth ratesshowed that the economic growth rate is slightly lower than the scientificgrowth rate.

Growth rates of modern science: A latent piecewise growth curve approach to model publication numbers from established and new literature databases