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The deepening penetration of variable energy resources creates unprecedentedchallenges for system operators (SOs). An issue that merits special attentionis the precipitous net load ramps, which require SOs to have flexible capacityat their disposal so as to maintain the supply-demand balance at all times. Inthe judicious procurement and deployment of flexible capacity, a tool thatforecasts net load ramps may be of great assistance to SOs. To this end, wepropose a methodology to forecast the magnitude and start time of daily primarythree-hour net load ramps. We perform an extensive analysis so as to identifythe factors that influence net load and draw on the identified factors todevelop a forecasting methodology that harnesses the long short-term memorymodel. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology on theCAISO system using comparative assessments with selected benchmarks based onvarious evaluation metrics.

Forecasting Daily Primary Three-Hour Net Load Ramps in the CAISO System