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The history of oil and gas well stimulation through hydraulic fracturing ischaracterized by a pursuit of optimal designs tailored to reservoir properties.However, as with many engineering systems, the impact of variability anduncertainty (in this case of reservoir properties) is not accounted in thesedeterministic approaches. We propose an expansion of the principle of designdiversity wherein the focus becomes developing optimal portfolio combinationsof multiple designs rather than repeated application of a single design. Thisapproach can substantially increase efficiency and decrease risk when designingsystems where outcome desirability is definable as a smoothly-varyingefficiency and where risk is related to the variance of outcomes tied touncertain variability of the design environment. For the case of oil/gas wells,we demonstrate diverse portfolios of designs can improve stimulation efficiencyby nearly a factor of four and cut risk associated with variability anduncertainty of outcomes by over 80%. Hydraulic fracturing optimization istherefore fundamentally dependent upon uncertainty, and a change of approachtoward the pursuit of design diversity can have a profound impact on efficiencyand risk, and in turn cost and environmental impacts, in oil and gasdevelopment.

Diversity Dependent Uncertainty Management for Hydrocarbon Stimulation in Uncertain Heterogeneous Reservoir with Improved Efficiency