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In this paper, we analyzed how business age and mortality are related duringthe first years of life, and tested the different hypotheses proposed in theliterature. For that, we used data on U.S. business establishments, with 1-yearresolution in the range of age of 0-5 years, in the period 1977-2016, publishedby the United States Census Bureau. First, we explored the adaptation ofclassical techniques of survival analysis (the Life Table and Peto-Turnbullmethods) to the business survival analysis. Then, we considered nine parametricprobabilistic models, most of them well-known in reliability analysis and inthe actuarial literature, with different shapes of the hazard function, that wefitted by maximum likelihood method and compared with the Akaike informationcriterion. Our findings show that newborn firms seem to have a decreasingfailure rate with the age during the first five years in market, with theexception of the first months of some years in which the risk can rise.

The risk of death in newborn businesses during the first years in market