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The blue crab (Callinectes sapidus) is a dominant ecological species of highcommercial value. Spawning stock and recruitment of the Chesapeake Baypopulation declined by 80% in the 1990s. After severe management actions wereimplemented in 2008, female abundance rebounded to pre-1994 levels andstabilized. The stepwise decline in the early 1990s, followed by a consistentlylow level of abundance for 15 y and a jump to high abundance after 2008,suggested the existence of alternative stable states. Alternatively, highfishing pressure combined with low recruitment in 1992 could have triggered aproportional decline in the population, followed by a population increase in2008 due to rigorous management actions that reduced fishing. We evaluatedthese alternatives with a stage-structured dynamic population model usingordinary differential equations. In addition, stock assessment models assumethat fishing and mortality are independent of density. Hence, we alsoinvestigated the role of density-dependent predation, cannibalism and fishingin blue crab population dynamics. We conclude that for the blue crab populationin Chesapeake Bay: (1) bistable positive states are not likely withbiologically realistic parameter values; (2) hyperbolic (depensatory) fishingwill not produce extinction at the range of population densities observed inthe bay; and (3) crabs can survive a higher fishing rate under the morerealistic assumption of sigmoidal (density-dependent) predation and cannibalismthan under constant (density-independent) predation and cannibalism. Thesecollectively indicate that the blue crab population in Chesapeake Bay isresilient to a range of biotic and abiotic disturbances.

Impacts of density-dependent predation, cannibalism and fishing in a stage-structured population model of the blue crab in Chesapeake Bay