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I discuss and criticize the use of "dual transformations" to calculate"shadow moments" in the distribution of epidemic fatalities. I show how thistransformation is arbitrary and not only yields an unjustified functional formfor the distribution of fatalities but turns out to be highly unphysical (seeFig. 1 in the manuscript). Therefore, the expected number of fatalitiescalculated from the "shadow moments" approach lacks any theoretical support.This is of fundamental importance to assess risk from pandemics. I argue thatthe natural way to address this sort of problems in statistical physics is bymeans of finite-size scaling.

Finite-size scaling versus dual random variables and shadow moments in the size distribution of epidemics