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Mumbai, amongst the most densely populated cities in the world, has witnessedthe fourth largest number of cases and the largest number of deaths among allthe cities in India (as of 28th October 2020). Along with the rest of India,lockdowns (of varying degrees) have been in effect in Mumbai since March 25,2020. Given the large economic toll on the country from the lockdown and therelated restrictions on mobility of people and goods, swift opening of theeconomy especially in a financial hub such as Mumbai becomes critical. In thisreport, we use the IISc-TIFR agent based simulator to develop long termprojections for Mumbai under realistic scenarios related to Mumbai's opening ofthe workplaces, or equivalently, the economy, and the associated publictransportation through local trains and buses. These projections were developedtaking into account a possible second wave if the economy and the local trainsare fully opened either on November 1, 2020 or on January 1, 2021. The impacton infection spread in Mumbai if the schools and colleges open on January firstweek 2021 is also considered. We also try to account for the increasedintermingling amongst the population during the Ganeshotsav festival as well asaround the Navratri/Dussehra and Diwali festival. Our conclusion, based on oursimulations, is that the impact of fully opening up the economy on November 1is manageable provided reasonable medical infrastructure is in place. Further,schools and colleges opening in January do not lead to excessive increase ininfections.  The report also explores the relative effectiveness of contact tracing vscontainment zones, and also includes very rudimentary results of the effect ofvaccinating the elderly population in February 2021.

COVID-19 Epidemic in Mumbai: Projections, full economic opening, and containment zones versus contact tracing and testing: An Update