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Facing increasing societal and economic pressure, many countries haveestablished strategies to develop renewable energy portfolios, whosepenetration in the market can alleviate the dependence on fossil fuels. In thecase of wind, there is a fundamental question related to the resilience, andhence profitability of future wind farms to a changing climate, given thatcurrent wind turbines have lifespans of up to thirty years. In this work, wedevelop a new non-Gaussian method data to simulations and to estimate futurewind, predicated on a trans-Gaussian transformation and a cluster-wiseminimization of the Kullback-Leibler divergence. Future winds abundance will bedetermined for Saudi Arabia, a country with a recently established plan todevelop a portfolio of up to 16 GW of wind energy. Further, we estimate thechange in profits over future decades using additional high-resolutionsimulations, an improved method for vertical wind extrapolation, and powercurves from a collection of popular wind turbines. We find an overall increasein the daily profit of $272,000 for the wind energy market for the optimallocations for wind farming in the country.

Assessing the Reliability of Wind Power Operations under a Changing Climate with a Non-Gaussian Bias Correction