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Food insecurity is associated with increased risk for several healthconditions and with increased national burden of chronic disease. Keydeterminants for household food insecurity are income and food costs. Forecastsshow household disposable income for 2020 expected to fall and for 2021 to riseonly slightly. Prices are forecast to rise. Thus, future increased food priceswould be a significant driver of greater food insecurity. Structured expertjudgement elicitation, a well-established method for quantifying uncertainty,using experts. In July 2020, each expert estimated the median, 5th percentileand 95th percentile quantiles of changes in price to April 2022 for ten foodcategories under three end-2020 settlement Brexit scenarios: A: full WTO terms;B: a moderately disruptive trade agreement (better than WTO); C: a minimallydisruptive trade agreement. When combined in proportions for calculate ConsumerPrices Index food basket costs, the median food price change under full WTOterms is expected to be +17.9% [90% credible interval:+5.2%, +35.1%]; withmoderately disruptive trade agreement: +13.2% [+2.6%, +26.4%] and with aminimally disruptive trade agreement +9.3% [+0.8%, +21.9%]. The number ofhouseholds experiencing food insecurity and its severity are likely to increasebecause of expected sizeable increases in median food prices in the monthsafter Brexit, whereas low income group spending on food is unlikely toincrease, and may be further eroded by other factors not considered here (e.g.COVID-19). Higher increases are more likely than lower rises and towards theupper limits, these would entail severe impacts. Research showing a low foodbudget leads to increasingly poor diet suggests that demand for health servicesin both the short and longer term is likely to increase due to the effects offood insecurity on the incidence and management of diet-sensitive conditions.

Anticipated impacts of Brexit scenarios on UK food prices and implications for policies on poverty and health: a structured expert judgement update