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Are COVID-19 fatalities large when a federal government does not enforcecontainment policies and instead allow states to implement their own policies?We answer this question by developing a stochastic extension of a SIRDepidemiological model for a country composed of multiple states. Our modelallows for interstate mobility. We consider three policies: mask mandates,stay-at-home orders, and interstate travel bans. We fit our model to daily U.S.state-level COVID-19 death counts and exploit our estimates to produce variouspolicy counterfactuals. While the restrictions imposed by some states inhibiteda significant number of virus deaths, we find that more than two-thirds of U.S.COVID-19 deaths could have been prevented by late November 2020 had the federalgovernment enforced federal mandates as early as some of the earliest statesdid. Our results quantify the benefits of early actions by a federal governmentfor the containment of a pandemic.

Preventing COVID-19 Fatalities: State versus Federal Policies