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Previous work has shown that for contagion processes on extended starnetworks (trees with exactly one node of degree > 2), there is a simple,closed-form expression for a highly accurate approximation to the maximumlikelihood infection source. Here, we generalize that result to a class ofhypertrees which, although somewhat structurally analogous, provides a muchricher representation space. In particular, this approach can be used toestimate patient zero sources, even when the infection has been propagated vialarge group gatherings rather than person-to-person spread, and when it isspreading through interrelated social bubbles with varying degrees of overlap.In contact tracing contexts, this estimator may be used to identify the sourceof a local outbreak, which can then be used for forward tracing or for furtherbackward tracing (by similar or other means) to an upstream source.

Social Bubbles and Superspreaders: Source Identification for Contagion Processes on Hypertrees