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A second wave of SARS-CoV-2 is unfolding in dozens of countries. However,this second wave manifests itself strongly in new reported cases, but less indeath counts compared to the first wave. Over the past three months in Germany,the reported cases increased by a factor five or more, whereas the death countshardly grew. This discrepancy fueled speculations that the rise of reportedcases would not reflect a second wave but only wider testing. We find that thisapparent discrepancy can be explained to a large extent by the age structure ofthe infected, and predict a pronounced increase of death counts in the nearfuture, as the spread once again expands into older age groups. To re-establishcontrol, and to avoid the tipping point when TTI capacity is exceeded, casenumbers have to be lowered. Otherwise the control of the spread and theprotection of vulnerable people will require more restrictive measures latestwhen the hospital capacity is reached.

The foreshadow of a second wave: An analysis of current COVID-19 fatalities in Germany