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A Higher Order Markovian (HOM) model to capture the dynamics of commodityprices is proposed as an alternative to a Markovian model. In particular, theorder of the former model, is taken to be the delay, in the response of theindustry, to the market information. This is then empirically analyzed for theprices of Copper Mini and four other bases metals, namely Aluminum, Lead,Nickel and Zinc, in the Indian commodities market. In case of Copper Mini, theusage of the HOM approach consistently offer improvement, over the Markovianapproach, in terms of the errors in forecasting. Similar trends were observedfor the other base metals considered, with the exception of Aluminum, which canbe attributed the volatility in the Asian market during the COVID-19 outbreak.

Modeling the commodity prices of base metals in Indian commodity market using a Higher Order Markovian Approach