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Current efforts of modelling COVID-19 are often based on the standardcompartmental models such as SEIR and their variations. As pre-symptomatic andasymptomatic cases can spread the disease between populations through travel,it is important to incorporate mobility between populations into theepidemiological modelling. In this work, we propose to modify the commonly-usedSEIR model to account for the dynamic flight network, by estimating theimported cases based on the air traffic volume as well as the test positiverate at the source. This modification, called Flight-SEIR, can potentiallyenable 1). early detection of outbreaks due to imported pre-symptomatic andasymptomatic cases, 2). more accurate estimation of the reproduction number and3). evaluation of the impact of travel restrictions and the implications oflifting these measures. The proposed Flight-SEIR is essential in navigatingthrough this pandemic and the next ones, given how interconnected our world hasbecome.

Incorporating Dynamic Flight Network in SEIR to Model Mobility between Populations