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Rapid climate change has wide-ranging implications for the Arctic region,including sea ice loss, increased geopolitical attention, and expandingeconomic activity, including a dramatic increase in shipping activity. As aresult, the risk of harmful non-native marine species being introduced intothis critical region will increase unless policy and management steps areimplemented in response. Using big data about shipping, ecoregions, andenvironmental conditions, we leverage network analysis and data miningtechniques to assess, visualize, and project ballast water-mediated speciesintroductions into the Arctic and dispersal of non-native species within theArctic. We first identify high-risk connections between the Arctic andnon-Arctic ports that could be sources of non-native species over 15 years(1997-2012) and observe the emergence of shipping hubs in the Arctic where thecumulative risk of non-native species introduction is increasing. We thenconsider how environmental conditions can constrain this Arctic introductionnetwork for species with different physiological limits, thus providing aspecies-level tool for decision-makers. Next, we focus on within-Arcticballast-mediated species dispersal where we use higher-order network analysisto identify critical shipping routes that may facilitate species dispersalwithin the Arctic. The risk assessment and projection framework we proposecould inform risk-based assessment and management of ship-borne invasivespecies in the Arctic.

Network analysis of ballast-mediated species transfer reveals important introduction and dispersal patterns in the Arctic