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The synthetic control method is an empirical methodology forcausal inferenceusing observational data. By observing thespread of COVID-19 throughout theworld, we analyze the dataon the number of deaths and cases in differentregions usingthe power of prediction, counterfactual analysis, andsyntheticinterventions of the synthetic control and its extensions. Weobservethat the number of deaths and cases in different re-gions would have been muchsmaller had the lockdowns beenimposed earlier and had the re-openings been donelater, es-pecially among indoor bars and restaurants. We also analyzethespeculated impact of herd immunity on the spread giventhe population of eachregion and show that lockdown policieshave a very strong impact on the spreadregardless of the levelof prior infections.  Our most up-to-date code, model, and data can be foundon github:https://github.com/niloofarbayat/COVID19-synthetic-control-analysis

Synthetic Control, Synthetic Interventions, and COVID-19 spread: Exploring the impact of lockdown measures and herd immunity