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This paper develops a methodology for tracking in real time the impact ofshocks (such as natural disasters, financial crises or pandemics) on grossdomestic product (GDP) by analyzing high-frequency electricity market data. Asan illustration, we estimate the GDP loss caused by COVID-19 in twelve Europeancountries during the first wave of the pandemic. Our results are almostindistinguishable from the official statistics of the recession during thefirst two quarters of 2020 (correlation coefficient of 0.98) and are validatedby several robustness tests. However, they are also more chronologicallydisaggregated and up-to-date than standard macroeconomic indicators and,therefore, can provide crucial and timely information for policy evaluation.Our results show that delaying intervention and pursuing 'herd immunity' havenot been successful strategies so far, since they increased both economicdisruption and mortality. We also find that coordinating policiesinternationally is fundamental for minimizing spillover effects from NPIsacross countries.

Tracking GDP in real-time using electricity market data: insights from the first wave of COVID-19 across Europe