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It is important to understand how the emissions of different regions,sectors, or climate forcers play a role on pathways toward the Paris Agreementtemperature targets. There are however methodological challenges forattributing individual contributions due to complexities associated with avariety of climate forcers affecting the climate system on different spatialand temporal scales. Here, we use the latest historical and future emissionsdata for a comprehensive set of climate forcers as well as land-use datasetsand apply the normalized marginal approach to quantify the forcingcontributions of regions, sectors and forcing agents toward the 2C and 1.5Ctargets. We show that most of the worldwide regions and sectors need tomaintain forcing levels not higher than present levels to attain the 1.5Ctarget of the Paris Agreement, while slightly higher future forcing levels thanpresent levels are allowed for the 2C target. Our results illustrate theimportance of negative CO2 emissions, which contribute -0.75+/-0.44 Wm-2 and-0.42+/-0.27 Wm-2 to the 2C and 1.5C targets. Less negative forcings, or morepositive forcings are also identified for the land-use albedo for the 2C and1.5C scenarios compared to existing studies.

Source attributions of radiative forcing by regions, sectors, and climate forcers