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Research on belief formation has produced contradictory findings on whetherand when communication between group members will improve the accuracy ofnumeric estimates such as economic forecasts, medical diagnoses, and jobcandidate assessments. While some evidence suggests that carefully mediatedprocesses such as the "Delphi method" produce more accurate beliefs thanunstructured discussion, others argue that unstructured discussion outperformsmediated processes. Still others argue that independent individuals produce themost accurate beliefs. This paper shows how network theories of beliefformation can resolve these inconsistencies, even when groups lack apparentstructure as in informal conversation. Emergent network structures of influenceinteract with the pre-discussion belief distribution to moderate the effect ofcommunication on belief formation. As a result, communication sometimesincreases and sometimes decreases the accuracy of the average belief in agroup. The effects differ for mediated processes and unstructuredcommunication, such that the relative benefit of each communication formatdepends on both group dynamics as well as the statistical properties ofpre-interaction beliefs. These results resolve contradictions in previousresearch and offer practical recommendations for teams and organizations.

Network Structures of Collective Intelligence: The Contingent Benefits of Group Discussion