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Independent sociological polls are forbidden in Belarus. Online pollsperformed without sound scientific rigour do not yield representative results.Yet, both inside and outside Belarus it is of great importance to obtainprecise estimates of the ratings of all candidates. These ratings couldfunction as reliable proxies for the election's outcomes. We conduct anindependent poll based on the combination of the data collected via Viber andon the streets of Belarus. The Viber and the street data samples consist ofalmost 45000 and 1150 unique observations respectively. Bayesian regressionswith poststratification were build to estimate ratings of the candidates andrates of early voting turnout for the population as a whole and within variousfocus subgroups. We show that both the officially announced results of theelection and early voting rates are highly improbable. With a probability of atleast 95%, Sviatlana Tikhanouskaya's rating lies between 75% and 80%, whereasAliaksandr Lukashenka's rating lies between 13% and 18% and early voting ratepredicted by the method ranges from 9% to 13% of those who took part in theelection. These results contradict the officially announced outcomes, which are10.12%, 80.11%, and 49.54% respectively and lie far outside even the 99.9%credible intervals predicted by our model. The only marginal groups of peoplewhere the upper bounds of the 99.9% credible intervals of the rating ofLukashenka are above 50% are people older than 60 and uneducated people. Forall other marginal subgroups, including rural residents, even the upper boundsof 99.9% credible intervals for Lukashenka are far below 50%. The same is truefor the population as a whole. Thus, with a probability of at least 99.9%Lukashenka could not have had enough electoral support to win the 2020presidential election in Belarus.

Multilevel regression with poststratification for the national level Viber/Street poll on the 2020 presidential election in Belarus